As for achieving air superiority, stinger rockets on cheap motorized pan/tilt-tripods (load <20kg for Stinger) would need to be positioned on many building-roofs. Russian Anti Radar Missiles would try to aim on radar, so all it needs is the deactivation of the calculated aimed radar in a small azimuthal angle and the activation of a fake emitter to be hit in safe distance to the radar, as anti radar missiles dont have much impact. As the triangulating radar network would know the position and direction of the missiles /rockets /planes /helicopters, the network would decide which stinger would engage to attack from BEHIND. An effective Stinger-range up to 4km is largely sufficient in a networking environment.
A few tiny APARs might cost 1million, a dozen pan/tilt-mounted Stingers another million, 2mio$ might already provide an important help for a larger town.
We would be more than happy to provide lists of suppliers for all components needed. Ready to use would ie be the israeli "smash hopper" from smart-shooter.com, but we can show how to produce a rifle/anti-tank-unit for 500$ in mass which is needed for this war.
But there are also less complicated tools to stop the enemy, ie to delay the transport: Stop a convoy by driving in front of it, and ie at a red light just shoot stud bolts through a hole of your car into the road, using ie an automatic powder actuated fastener like Hilti DX series. Then screw any useful geometry onto the bolt, and the convoy needs days to continue as hundreds of different tires need to be brought to unsecured open fields...
If you expect chain-vehicles in the convoy, you could drill a hole into the road and anker a spring steel -hard enough to pierce the rubber, flexible enough to bend when its point touches steel. Make sure the hole is widened conie-shaped to allow for bending. Fix the spring with 2-component glue (5 min).
Dont forget to cut off the tiny helpers after the convoy has passed. And of course it is always a good idea to throw time-delayed mines between the chains of tanks that are transported on trains while they move through forested areas (during the night). A trial would show what kind of undercoating the mine´s base plate needs in order to glide ca 6m in front/below the tank.
Killing Russian soldiers in Ukraine is good, but destroying most of the 140000 locomotives is Russia is better. Just hide their own ATMs between the rails below the gravel and place the appropriate sensor like magnetic or vibration. If people, goods and tanks cant be transported anymore, the economy is dead within days, even grain couldnt be transported to the next port, so Russia cant present itself as knight in shining armor, and w/o fuel trucks (see the "Hilti-moment") and trains, the energy-line would die in their "new" territories...
Using ca. 5 MLRS/HIMARS M270/M142 batteries with ie M30 guided rockets with <70km range, installed out of orc´s range and executed in hit&run tactic, assisted by small drones: (1) with gimbaled thermal range finders (ca 850gram, +-1.4m accuracy on 1km distance if lateral distant flying is needed); (2) crosshair-cam-assisted flying exactly over the target (much cheaper drone system), giving exact orc´s positions; (3): optical position-holding algorithms that monitor motor-control in order to calculate air mass velocities, so the drone would move a bit against the wind, and vertically installed bomblets hit the orcs very precisely, thus reducing the bomblet s weight and increasing the number of bomblets, so you end up with less flights and more attacks per flight; (4) flying lower thanks to the use of ANC (described below), increasing precision so that tank-hatch-hitting wont stay an exception; (5) using ie 33 ball-shaped bomblets dia 5cm, max 30grams each, in two concentric rows with a simple motor-turned ring per row, where each ring has one hole to let the bomblet fall through; the bomblet should be positioned so so exactly onto the enemy that he will be wounded enough to end the fight; we estimate that plastic balls containing 100 steel balls and an explosive that ignites on impact from a drop height of 30m=9J, impulse=0.7Ns would already suffice to win this war by pushing out the enemy without risking Ukrainian forces.
It is imperative to convert GNSS data via ie an online post processing precise point positioning spatial reference system (SRS-PPP) in order to achieve 10cm accuracy.
Though HIMARS needs less systems, Brimstone <25km is much cheaper and more agile, ie. with a 3-rocket pod on an ATV, maybe with a trailer for more rockets.
Many experts think that this is an artillery war. It only is if the Ukrainians let it happen, but as it is playing out Russian strength, it should be avoided by spreading out into tiny groups and attacking on tiny ATVs as 2-men-teams with rocket launchers and drones. Most important is reconnaissance, 80% of all work should be drone surveillance of rivers, coast lines, borders and of course finding enemy tanks/bmps/grads/smertch etc. on the fields. First find Pantsir/Tor systems with cheap tiny drones like DJI mini3, very hard to detect, and sending rockets costing 50000$ to destroy drones worth 500$ is a nice value-disproportion. 10% of efforts should be SAM-SSMsys/tank/bmp/troops destruction, and only 10% would be own troop´s combat operations. Make this a drone war, and Russia will lose, play to their rules and you will have a hard time.
We have been asked if 80/10/10% effort distribution to reconnaissance/destruction per drone/per soldier was our serious assessment. So let s elaborate on that:
War Games: Let the "children" play
Start a web page, invite all interested parties to participate in a drone precision game in ie Poland. Use interfaces between Elon s Starlink dishes and the drones, tell Elon to create a special drone channel with low latency. Let a user remotely control the drone (ie DJI Mini3) from his home. The more tanks he finds from a certain distance, the more points he/she receives. The best are allowed to use remote-controlled drones above Ukraine battle fields to detect enemy vehicles. The soldiers would only recharge and pose drones, interfaces and dishes. The dish could ie be installed between 4 tree-tops, mounted onto a stackable pole (ie light 2m pcs easily transportable by ATV), and fixed with dia 1mm steel wires to the trunks.
This way a big chunk of reconnaissance work would be outsourced and handled by experts -and as after all this war is about main streaming- humiliating these stupid russians can be a lot of fun and cause side effects that come closer to overthrowing the new Hitler from inside. The target destruction is dependant on expected drone counter measures and needed weapon impact (ie hard/soft target and diameter).
Reconnaissance drones (that might carry a tiny grenade just to disable the fragile radars, if no Switchblades/Phoenix ghosts are available) should be followed by heavy drones carrying ie a dozen hollow charge grenades (H.E.A.Ts), maybe Ukrainians have enough RKG3 (ca 1kg/pc) or equivalent, if the reconnaissance drone did a good work, the overloaded carrier should take at least 10kg for a very short time and unload asap. As drone detection must be avoided, it seems to be a good idea to put a loudspeaker under such drone, emitting the motor´s noises 180° phase shifted (active noise cancelling=ANC). Also use toroidal rotors that reduce up to 10dbA while hovering (or use at least multi-blade rotors with 5-10 blades/rotor). Spray the parts seen from below in two grey colors, including ammunition! Use IR cams and attack at night. The winter shows a big contrast between -10°C and at least 10°C that will gush out of the orcs, and darkness paired with ANC allows for lower altitude flights and precise hits.
It is important that the fin-less grenades (no fins needed) are head-heavy and hang vertically and are engaged in a balanced way (N-S-W-E from outside to inside), and only when the X-Y accelerators are very close to zero, a tiny app can handle that, and the gimballed cam must stand perpendicular (towards earth center), only then chances are high that every cam-cross-haired-tank only needs one grenade to burn out. As the more expensive heavy drone is big and noisy, high altitude is recommended, so stand-still and precison are king.
If there are no more vehicles to bring troops into towns/onto fields, even a general mobilization wouldn't help anymore, which wouldn't end war as long as Putin the Great is alive, far from it! Angering the devil could however entrap Putin to go one shocking step too far -and the coalition of the willing would eventually get the world s go to act decisively -this time with a just cause. Producing riots inside Russia though is also a great option.
Take the Rasputiza season as a chance! Use light rocket systems on ATVs, flying over the fields, drone guided, where orc tanks are stuck. This asymmetic situation is the big advantage over the dull enemy.
There are also far too many trains sending new (rather old, yet dangerous) toys onto the battlefield. Destroying tracks helps for a day. Derailing the train is more helpful, as that offers the opportunity to send RPGs into each high value target that sits "wagon-bound" without much defence; as the tank would be unloaded, the turrent wont participate in the fly-high contest, but it´s important to open the can and completely destroy the interior. So unscrew the outer track clamps and use a simple steel-Y-structure that you control by letting the spring lift the bar to the height of the locomotive´s coupling. Let go the rope a few meters in front of the train, it will surely not be able to react to a significant point;)
Another way to counter artillery fast is to drop microphones by drones over the battle field on GPS-defined positions and let the microunits send the exact time of sound. a triangulated sound network could quite exactly determine the source location, and prepared ukraine units should be able to shell the position within a minute. That s because you dont need to wait for impact, but just for muzzle sound. Now motorize the preloaded howitzer for auto-positioning of azimuth and elevation according to incoming data, and the enemy cant scoot anymore.
A drone carrying dozens of tiny thermobaric grenades in ball shape could be used for in the trench war. Vehicles can be demobilised with a light weight done structure carrying 2 rpg7.
Russia pushes mostly stupid mass, we suggest to counter that by using precisely guided grenades released from drones. Use ie the MLX90640 32x24 IR array and control fins; you could follow the heat signal even of moving targets, hit the motor section or a guy, especially in the winter time.
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We think this war should be brought to Russia, only there it can be stopped quite rapidly. We began writing a story book for a film, and it might be a good solution to distract the orcs and force Putler to pull troops back into his yard. If for example tall buildings in Moscow would collapse, if terrorist attacks from inside Russia grow to a power that cant be handled anymore just by police forces, then the war might be over and Medwedev can give speeches how to nuke his own people. The silent mortar 2B25 would be largely sufficient to take out most houses of Duma-politicians and oligarchs on/near Rubeljovka. That s easier than evaluating which russian equipment is prone/sensitive to EMP, locally produced by explosions from grenades to facilitate the counter offensive. Even an attacked Kremlin might have difficulties with such covert ops- that could well be expanded to disabling an empty oil tanker returning from China/India, or blowing up some empty oil compartments through thermobarics, giving indication that every export will become a target, so the mostly European companies being exempted from sanctions would stop this silly game. Every insurance company would pull back when losses rise. Everything that creates fear on the leading class might lead to the general mobilisation - and that is the chance to reach enough people to overthrow the regime. It is not the Westerner´s affair if the Russian Federation should end up in the creation of independent states (maybe according to the 8 federation circles with some circles merging before the declaration), but cleptocrasy would be better tracable and maybe curtailed; we should however be aware that a hydra with 7 or 8 heads and nuke teeths is even harder to behead! That s why a united russia should persist, and enabling putin to show enough positive result after all in order to continue his reign, it might be a "respectful" solution to create a "russified zone" in donbas and one in crimea, where russia may rule with ruble and language -on ukaine territory, so they won enough to retreat the soldiers and end the nightmare. Prolong the Sewastopol port-rent contract as add-on during negotiations so Russia doesnt lose its face, this port is very important for their geostrategical moves in the southern hemisphere. Maybe it could become a third russian exclave on Ukraine soil, and that should be enough to give away.
World humanity lost a billion$ and we need to continue on our way... Ukraine would become member of NATO (Ukraine shouldnt negotiate on that) and EU, and respectful friendship between the former "brothers" might lead a way to overcome the dreadful past.
Being asked what would be the best outcome for Russia, here s our best scenario: The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting, said Sun Tzu. Does that include raining thermobaric grenades onto Rublyovka villas? Kadyrow needs to be taken out. The final disappearance of Putin, Lawrov, Medwedev, Nebensja, Sacharowa and all TV monsters could enable true reporting towards the russian people, and the world is better off without a Prigoschin and Kadyrow. There are enough Chechens fighting in Ukraine, a few would be sufficient to set the barbaric regime at home on fire, like RVC and Freedom of Russia Legion should do in Russia. Navalny as head of a mighty anti-corruption council and oligarchs handing over 75% of their shares to the state (if they conduct well), with the goal to sell 50% of these shares in order to attract foreign investors, could reopen the market after sanction lifting. Blaming a dead Hitler-Putin for all wrong doing makes it easier for the world as well as for Russians (same as Germans - Hitler after WW2) to regain trust and build up democratic roots. Ukraine with all its territory given back, built up with Russia´s foreign funds (that Russia hands over before a western-international court demands so), giving gas&oil to Ukrain for free as long as the country wants it, could become an EU/Nato member on an outer (onion) shell on specific subjects, no need to enter on all subjects (a solution also for current EU-members, so that the union can act and be taken serious, even with a phone # for Kissinger). This very same principle should be used for Georgia, Moldova- and even Russia! Ukraine´s NATO/EU membership will attract Belarussians to get rid of the Lukashenko-clan and join the club, maybe in 2025-2030, Kazakhstan should be offered to join as well, so that there would be a strong long wall against China. And then let s approach the Russians and integrate them -and ultimately maybe the Chinese arent as bad as we think they want to become, especially if Taiwan acts intelligently by helping China to produce powerful chips, thus reducing the gap and diluting the goal, and we could expect a prosperous second half of the 21st century, with
Palestine and Taiwan proclaiming their respective state status. Israel should take Gaza and move the people to Westjordan, where Israel builds them a new town, water is drawn from the Red Sea over Jordanian territory. With Palestine as free independent state the tensions should stop quickly. UNSC should abrogate the veto rights. EU should build up EUDEF as "Euro-Nato".
In short: Putin who sees himself as the new zar is nothing but another crazy Hitler who has to be stopped right away. He s a lonely player, and if <100 bumlickers are taken out (like Hitler, Himmler and Göbbels, and then you could easily find common ground with Rommel and Paulus), Russia can be reintegrated into human society in short time.
If that s not happening (destroying Russian military targets, from inside Russia = done by anti-Kremlin forces), the tragedy will heat up enormously, causing famine, immigration and annexed territories in and around Ukraine, this bastard wont stop. Russia could become the first country lasting 1000 years with the same double forever-president, this people is so Vodka-stupid, propaganda-paralyzed and ignorant that it wouldnt interfere. So all special agencies must act now.
update on 16.2.24: So the regime tortured Nawalny to death at last, yet another hero was sacrifized. The situation becomes dire, as Trump likes playing on someone else s cost, and Europe wont compensate for the US-supply loss. So we dont see better chances than to enable Ukraine to build tactical nukes -best given to the Russian opposition ofc, to stop Russian aggression from inside. This btw holds true for all other neighbors who cant rely on much more expensive conventional help or any alliance s ultimate support as we have seen. Right after this war, Ukraine s first move should be to announce the end of nuclear abstinence and then declare a new doctrin: touch my soil and i will nuke yours, with a clear plan: wipe our odessa and nischni nowgorod is gone, charkiv=st pertersburg, kiev=moscow. and ofc it needs a proof of power, like a test over the black sea. would the orcs risk moscou? we doubt that. No Russian regime would sacrifice Moscow for its pathologically ideological appetite. This is the ultimate calculation. Sadly we reached this point of definitive deterrance.
The EU should buy weapons and sell on loan to Ukraine, so no chancellor lives through the "german angst", and the loan should reach 500 billion to shock the Russians. This is the real western weapon: we are 30 times stronger here, we can break every Russian neck with economics!
update 25.10.24: we hear that trump is up. ukraine as sovereign country cant rely on this guy, neither on this german Scholz clown. so there is only one solution as neither usa nor germany want ukraine into nato, and selensky already put it right: nukes. after all signatures, efforts, after 100000s of deaths, ukraine cant rely on the western powers, so sad. it will die.
ukraine will die!
this winter, millions might be forced to flee from death by cold if enough rockets overwhelm the systems. the "global west" was just playing, and the ZAR taught us how silly we were.
what it needs now is the russian opposition stepping in, announcing to end economic desaster, demanding to stop military spending, destroying all military units by thermobaric force, followed by tactical nukes. if russians cant stop russians, ukraine needs to offer its space, but with weird trump, you dont know when force steps in.
so, ukraine, sovereign country, gather all power needed, prepare for the worst, dont rely on anyone, do what you have to do to survive. hitler wont burn moscow for kiew. play the game.
